empty
28.03.2025 09:19 AM
Markets Have Found the Culprits

If you don't get it the first time, you will the second. The S&P 500 sell-off, led by U.S. and foreign automaker shares, continued a second day after the imposition of 25% tariffs. Donald Trump threatened the European Union and Canada with retaliation should they respond jointly to the import duties, and companies have begun tallying up losses. The broad stock index is confidently moving toward the lower boundary of its medium-term trading range of 5500–5790, but blaming only the White House occupant for all its troubles would be misguided.

The sell-off of overvalued "Magnificent Seven" companies, slowing corporate profit growth, and a weakening U.S. economy contribute to a capital shift from North America to Europe. European indices are currently outperforming the S&P 500 by a wide margin. However, according to the world's largest asset manager, this advantage may not last long. BlackRock believes that Germany's fiscal stimulus will primarily benefit banks and defense companies — a very narrow group. Therefore, one shouldn't count on the EuroStoxx 50 and DAX 40 rally to continue at the same pace.

Performance of European vs. U.S. Stock Indices

This image is no longer relevant

By contrast, the U.S. stock market will likely receive a fresh boost once the situation surrounding Donald Trump's protectionist policies becomes clearer. Many companies will adapt to the tariffs, enabling the S&P 500 to grow again.

But first, the broad stock index would do well to shed some dead weight. In 2025, that weight comes from the "Magnificent Seven" stocks. Back in February, they were trading at 45 times forward earnings. Only the sell-off has brought the P/E ratio down to 35 — still high, though the 11% drop in that figure is striking.

Q1 earnings season kicks off in a few weeks, and Wall Street's 7.1% earnings forecast is impressive. But that's four percentage points lower than what experts were projecting at the end of 2024. The discrepancy in estimates is above the historical average. Forecasts have been cut across all 11 S&P 500 sectors, and earnings growth is expected to slow in nine.

Earnings Forecast Trends by S&P 500 Sectors

This image is no longer relevant

This image is no longer relevant

The stronger-than-expected Q4 GDP reading of 2.4% shouldn't be misleading. For January–March, Bloomberg analysts expect GDP growth to slow to 1–1.5%, and the Atlanta Fed's leading indicator signals an even weaker pace — just 0.2%. Inflation remains elevated, tying the Fed's hands and preventing the central bank from throwing markets a lifeline.

Technically, on the daily chart, the S&P 500 continues its previously forecasted move from the upper boundary of its consolidation range (5500–5790) toward the lower bound. It makes sense to hold and even build on short positions once support at 5670 is broken — especially since the Broadening Wedge pattern is playing out clearly.

Marek Petkovich,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

USD/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

The USD/JPY pair maintains a bullish bias, staying above the psychological level of 145.00, reflecting intraday selling pressure on the Japanese yen amid U.S. dollar strength. Investors are concerned that

Irina Yanina 12:59 2025-07-07 UTC+2

USD/CAD. Analysis and Forecast

On Monday, the USD/CAD pair continued its upward movement for the second day in a row. This rise is driven by a combination of factors. Crude oil prices initially declined

Irina Yanina 12:39 2025-07-07 UTC+2

GBP/USD. Analysis and Forecast

The GBP/USD pair began the new week attempting to hold the key psychological level of 1.3600. However, amid mixed fundamental factors, it has not been successful so far. The British

Irina Yanina 12:14 2025-07-07 UTC+2

Three days left to avert tariffs

As July 9, the deadline set by Trump, approaches, the United States main trading partners spent the weekend rushing to finalize trade agreements or lobbying for more time. Meanwhile, Treasury

Jakub Novak 11:24 2025-07-07 UTC+2

Investors see no alternatives

Uncertainty is commonly the enemy of investment, but not in 2025. A double dose of unpredictability – from geopolitics and White House tariffs – hasn't stopped the S&P 500 from

Marek Petkovich 11:17 2025-07-07 UTC+2

What to Watch on July 7th? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

Very few macroeconomic publications are scheduled for Monday, and none of them are significant. Let us recall that Friday was practically a semi-holiday, as the United States celebrated Independence

Paolo Greco 08:29 2025-07-07 UTC+2

GBP/USD Overview on July 7, 2025

The GBP/USD currency pair remained nearly flat throughout Friday, as the U.S. trading session was essentially inactive on that day. There were no macroeconomic publications, and the market chose

Paolo Greco 07:25 2025-07-07 UTC+2

EUR/USD Overview on July 7, 2025

The EUR/USD currency pair remained virtually motionless throughout Friday. This lack of movement is easy to explain: Friday was U.S. Independence Day, with American markets closed. However

Paolo Greco 07:17 2025-07-07 UTC+2

USD/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

The USD/JPY pair is holding above the key 144.00 level amid continued weakness in the U.S. dollar. Strong household spending data released today in Japan has strengthened expectations

Irina Yanina 18:12 2025-07-04 UTC+2

NZD/USD. Analysis and Forecast

The NZD/USD currency pair is recovering after bouncing from the 0.6030 level, which marks a weekly low, and is attempting to gain further positive momentum. This suggests a break

Irina Yanina 18:08 2025-07-04 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.