empty
01.04.2025 11:37 AM
USD/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

This image is no longer relevant

Today, the USD/JPY pair is struggling to benefit from a slight intraday upward movement, especially amid expectations that the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates at a faster pace. However, uncertainty surrounding potential retaliatory tariffs from President Trump creates additional risks for the Japanese economy, which could prompt the Bank of Japan to stick to its current policy stance.

Positive sentiment in equity markets and moderate dollar strength are also contributing to the pair hovering near the psychological level of 150.00. According to Tankan index data, Japanese companies have raised their inflation forecasts for the next one, three, and five years. Along with strong consumer inflation figures from Tokyo, this reinforces the case for further rate hikes by the Bank of Japan—creating a divergence with the Federal Reserve's expected path of rate cuts. As a result, the narrowing rate differential between Japan and the U.S. supports the yen, capping USD/JPY's upside potential.

From a technical standpoint, a break below the lower boundary of the multi-week ascending trend channel could indeed be seen as a bearish signal.

However, the current neutral positioning of oscillators on the daily chart suggests caution before opening short positions. A drop below 149.55 would find support near the round level of 149.00. The next support level may stop USD/JPY around 148.70. Further selling would resume the negative bias that has been developing over the past three months.

On the other hand, a breakout above 150.25 would open the path to higher levels such as 150.80 and even 151.00. Sustained strength beyond this zone would shift the bias in favor of the bulls, potentially pushing the pair toward the next round level of 152.00 and beyond.

To identify new trading opportunities today, attention should be paid to the release of key U.S. economic data, such as the JOLTS job openings report and the ISM Manufacturing PMI.

Irina Yanina,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

What to Pay Attention to on June 24? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

Very few macroeconomic reports are scheduled for Tuesday, and none are of significant importance. Essentially, the only one worth mentioning is the German Business Climate Index —

Paolo Greco 07:19 2025-06-24 UTC+2

GBP/USD Overview – June 24: No Confirmation of Destruction

The GBP/USD currency pair also traded relatively calmly on Monday. While there were some price "swings," many traders and analysts had expected a much more significant move. The dollar strengthened

Paolo Greco 03:45 2025-06-24 UTC+2

EUR/USD Overview – June 24: Iran Exits Talks and Launches a Retaliatory Strike

The EUR/USD currency pair traded extremely calmly on Monday, considering the intense fundamental backdrop that developed over the weekend. Recall that over the weekend, Donald Trump once again "changed

Paolo Greco 03:45 2025-06-24 UTC+2

Trump Keeps Hitting a Wall

There's a saying: "An irresistible force meets an immovable object." It describes an irreconcilable standoff where neither side is willing to compromise. In my view, Trump's "scythe," with which

Chin Zhao 00:12 2025-06-24 UTC+2

Should We Expect De-escalation in the Middle East?

The market has absorbed the news of U.S. strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities quite resiliently. Why did this happen, and why was the reaction relatively muted? These questions are unlikely

Chin Zhao 00:12 2025-06-24 UTC+2

What Will Powell Say?

Starting June 24, Fed Chair Jerome Powell will address Congress over two days, delivering the semiannual monetary policy report. On Tuesday, he will speak before the Senate Banking Committee

Irina Manzenko 00:12 2025-06-24 UTC+2

The Euro Gets a Knife in the Back

Trouble never comes alone. European industry is beginning to lose steam after rapid growth driven by a front-loaded surge in U.S. imports. The euro area is a net oil importer

Marek Petkovich 00:11 2025-06-24 UTC+2

XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

Today, gold is attracting new sellers. Amid a sharp escalation in the conflict between Iran and Israel, the United States conducted airstrikes on three Iranian nuclear facilities in Fordow, Natanz

Irina Yanina 17:59 2025-06-23 UTC+2

USD/JPY. Analysis and Forecast. The Japanese Yen Maintains an Intraday Bearish Outlook

Today, Monday, selling pressure on the Japanese yen dominates, driven by several factors. Traders continue to push back expectations of a potential rate hike by the Bank of Japan, assuming

Irina Yanina 17:56 2025-06-23 UTC+2

USD/CHF. Analysis and Forecast

At the moment, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has reached a new two-week high, driven by hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve. The U.S. central bank has maintained its forecast

Irina Yanina 17:51 2025-06-23 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.