empty
15.04.2025 12:08 PM
USD/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

This image is no longer relevant

Today, the Japanese yen is struggling to extend its gains due to optimistic developments regarding trade negotiations and the postponement of tariffs. President Trump's statement about possible exemptions for the automotive industry may provide short-term support to the markets, but it also underscores the instability and volatility of current policy.

However, there are factors that may limit the downside for the yen, such as expectations of an interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan. Uncertainty around tariffs has led investors to reassess their expectations for rate hikes in Japan. Nevertheless, if the Bank of Japan does decide to raise rates in light of rising domestic prices and wages, this would support the yen in the long term.

Concerns over a rapidly escalating trade war between the US and China—which could undermine global economic growth—combined with optimism about a possible trade agreement between Japan and the US, are also supportive for the yen.

On the other hand, comments from Federal Reserve officials about potential rate cuts in response to economic shocks from tariffs are putting pressure on the US dollar. If the Fed indeed begins lowering rates, this could weaken the dollar and further support the yen.

Today's release of the Empire State Manufacturing Index may influence the USD/JPY pair's dynamics. However, Jerome Powell's speech on Wednesday is a key event for gauging the Fed's future path on interest rates. This will significantly impact the US dollar and could provide a new catalyst for USD/JPY.

Technical analysis shows that upward movement will face strong resistance around the psychological level of 144.00. However, sustained momentum beyond this level could trigger a short-covering rally, lifting spot prices toward the 144.45–144.50 range and possibly extending to the key 145.00 level. The bullish impulse may stretch further to the 145.50 zone and the round number of 146.00.

This image is no longer relevant

Conversely, weakness below the 143.00 level is expected to find support near the 142.25–142.20 level, just above the next round level of 142.00, which coincides with the multi-month low reached last Friday. A decisive break below this level could be seen as a new trigger for bearish momentum, dragging the USD/JPY pair down to support at 141.60 and then toward the 141.00 level. Further losses could expose support at 140.30 and the September 2024 swing low before spot prices potentially drop to the psychological 140.00 mark.

It's also worth noting that daily chart oscillators are approaching oversold territory, indicating a potential correction is on the horizon.

Irina Yanina,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

USD/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

The USD/JPY pair remains under pressure despite the U.S. dollar posting moderate gains for a second consecutive day, approaching the 144.00 level. Improved global risk sentiment following the trade agreement

Irina Yanina 15:01 2025-07-03 UTC+2

XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

Gold prices are struggling to gain momentum after a moderate intraday rebound from the $3340 level. Traders remain cautious, preferring to await the release of the U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP)

Irina Yanina 12:21 2025-07-03 UTC+2

EUR/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

consecutive day, once again approaching the yearly high reached earlier this week.The trade agreement between the United States and Vietnam has eased concerns over a prolonged trade conflict, increasing investor

Irina Yanina 12:13 2025-07-03 UTC+2

Good News Will Support Stock Markets and Token Demand (Potential Upside for Bitcoin and #NDX)

The market has ignored extremely weak employment data from ADP, focusing its attention on other factors. The ADP report released on Wednesday showed a significant slowdown in the U.S. private

Pati Gani 10:40 2025-07-03 UTC+2

Trump Targets China Through Vietnam

Yesterday, it was revealed that President Donald Trump had reached a trade agreement with Vietnam. This came after several weeks of intense diplomatic negotiations between the two countries and just

Jakub Novak 10:00 2025-07-03 UTC+2

A Wake-Up Call for the U.S. Economy

Yesterday's U.S. employment data served as a wake-up call for the American economy. According to the report, the number of employed persons declined in June for the first time

Jakub Novak 09:55 2025-07-03 UTC+2

The Market Bets on Profits

The market remains confident in a positive future. It hears only what it wants to hear. Negative news is ignored, allowing the S&P 500 to set new records. It doesn't

Marek Petkovich 09:35 2025-07-03 UTC+2

What to Pay Attention to on July 3? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

A significant number of macroeconomic reports are scheduled for release on Thursday, including some key reports. As a reminder, U.S. labor market and unemployment data are typically released on Friday

Paolo Greco 06:53 2025-07-03 UTC+2

GBP/USD Overview – July 3: Jerome Powell Finally Responded to Trump

The GBP/USD currency pair plummeted on Wednesday like a stone. However, every drop in the pair eventually gives way to a much stronger rise. Therefore, at this point, there's

Paolo Greco 03:45 2025-07-03 UTC+2

EUR/USD Overview – July 3: One Big Trump Law Passed, Dollar at 4-Year Lows

The EUR/USD currency pair traded relatively calmly on Wednesday, although the word "calm" may not accurately describe the daily decline of the dollar. The most accurate picture of what's happening

Paolo Greco 03:45 2025-07-03 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.