Forex Analysis & Reviews: 18.03.2022

18.03.2022 08:21 AM

The winner will be determined by time: the confrontation between the dollar and the yuan

The question of the superiority of the American and Chinese currencies remains relevant. It is possible that the leader of the global financial market will be determined in the near future. Contrary to authoritative statements about the dominant role of the dollar, it could be the yuan.

In the global financial game, many analysts are betting on the Chinese currency. According to Chinese analyst Wang Zaibang, a representative of the Taihe Research Center, the greenback has become an "unpredictable black hole" into which the wealth of the world's wealthy people can swim at any moment. According to the analyst, the United States violated the basic principles of the capitalist economy. This situation threatens the international political and economic order.

America's negative influence is most pronounced in global oil deals. Currently, they are carried out in dollars, but the transition to settlements in yuan in oil transactions in China and Saudi Arabia will dramatically increase the international status of the yuan. According to Wang Zaibang, this will be a turning point in world politics and economics. Currently, the Chinese economy is the largest in the world in terms of purchasing power parity and continues to grow. However, in international settlements, the yuan is much inferior to both the euro and the dollar.

A number of factors play against the further dominance of the greenback, including the uncontrolled printing of fiat money, fueling inflation, and the use of USD as a way to pressure other countries. A huge amount of money has "settled" on international accounts and is in the global reserves of central banks, since most trade settlements are made in dollars. However, the dollar array will gradually decrease against the background of increased political risks that arise during transactions with the US currency.

In the past few years, the United States has "recklessly used the hegemony of the USD to release large-scale liquidity," Wang Zaibang stressed. This provoked an oversupply of dollars worldwide and increased financial risks in many countries. Washington used the hegemony of the dollar to impose sanctions on a number of states, thereby undermining the global economy. The analyst of the Taihe Research Center is confident that the internationalization of the Chinese currency can weaken the influence of the US one.

However, the greenback does not intend to give up without a fight. In favor of the USD is its "linking" to international trade settlements. The need to pay in dollars throughout the world gives the greenback undeniable advantages. Previously, the euro claimed the leading role among the currencies, and now the yuan has been added to it. The financial ambitions of the latter are facilitated by the steady growth of the Chinese economy and the growing influence of China on global economic and geopolitical processes.

In the long-term planning horizon, trading in the commodity and stock markets will be carried out in dollars. However, then USD will face the problem of maintaining its dominant status. At the same time, instead of two key currencies - the dollar and the euro - five leaders will appear on the market: the yuan, the ruble and the rupee, experts predict. Wang Zaibang also admits such a development of events, focusing on the multipolarity of the international monetary system. Against this background, the internationalization of the yuan is a natural phenomenon, the Taihe analyst emphasizes.

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Larisa Kolesnikova,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
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