empty
InstaForex Loprais Team - Official participant of the Dakar rally
InstaForex Loprais Team - Official participant of the Dakar rally
This section is designed for those who are just starting their trading journey. InstaForex educational and analytical materials will meet your training needs. Our experts' recommendations will make your first steps to trading success simple and clear.
Start as Beginner
How to start trading
Useful information
Training and recordings
InstaForex innovative services are an essential element of productive investment. We strive to provide our clients with advanced technical capabilities and make their trading routine comfortable as we are recognized as the best broker in this regard.
Become Investor
PAMM System
ForexCopy System
Passive investments
Partnership with InstaForex is beneficial and top-tier. Join our affiliate programs and enjoy bonuses, partner rewards, and the possibility to travel with the team of the world-renowned brand.
Become Partner
Main Page
Partner Area
Advantages for Affiliates
Registration
This section contains the most lucrative offers from InstaForex. Receive bonuses when topping up an account, compete with other traders, and get real prizes even when trading in a demo account.
All Promo Campaigns
Bonuses
Contests
Events
Holidays with InstaForex are not only pleasant but also useful. We offer a one-stop portal, numerous forums, and corporate blogs, where traders can exchange experiences and become successfully integrated into the Forex community.
Full details
Forums
We are in social networks
Forex humour
Forex Portal
InstaForex is an international brand created in 2007. The company provides services for online FX trading and is recognized as one of the world's leading brokers. We have won the trust of more than 7,000,000 retail traders, who have already appreciated our reliability and focus on innovations.
Learn More
History
Why Choose Us
InstaSport
Regulation
Company News
Awards
InstaForex Stars
InstaForex Offline
Headquarters
Key documents
Social Responsibility
14.03.2025 03:06 PM
A New Problem Rises for America – The Debt Ceiling (Expecting #SPX and #NDX to Resume Their Decline After a Likely Short-Term Recovery)
Open trading account Open demo account

The confrontation between the U.S. and the EU has entered a new phase. The U.S. president is taking a hardline approach toward Europe, effectively following a "tit for tat" strategy. After the EU decided to impose retaliatory tariffs, setting a 50% duty on U.S. imports of alcohol and other goods, Trump responded with a 200% counter-tariff. This escalating trade war between the U.S. and Europe has reached almost absurd proportions, yet its consequences are having a serious impact on investors and global financial markets.

Current investor sentiment toward geopolitical developments is clearly reflected in the performance of U.S. Treasury bonds, which have stabilized in yield amid extreme uncertainty about the future direction of U.S. policy. The yield on 10-year Treasury bonds has hovered just below 4.3% since early March, reflecting market indecision.

The Debt Ceiling: Another Risk for the Markets

Beyond trade wars, another major uncertainty is looming over the markets—the unresolved debt ceiling issue. Under Joe Biden's administration, this problem was simply resolved by raising the ceiling, but Trump's administration may not follow the same approach. Trump came to power not only with the slogan "Make America Great Again" but also with promises to implement a more responsible economic policy, aiming to cut government spending.

Amid this backdrop, some market voices are already warning of a potential U.S. default as early as this summer. If this scenario materializes, the U.S. economy could face severe financial pressure, leading to a decline in demand for American stocks. In such a situation, stock indices could suffer significant losses, and even a slowdown in inflation or a 0.25% Fed rate cut might not be enough to provide support.

If this issue remains unresolved and a U.S. default becomes inevitable, the S&P 500 broad-market index could plunge to the 4,000-point level—a key level from which the index rallied in spring 2023, driven by the attractiveness of U.S. assets amid the war in Ukraine and rising global geopolitical tensions.

What to Expect in the Markets Today?

The trade war narrative is likely to dominate the markets once again. After a possible short-term recovery in U.S. equities today, the market is likely to resume its decline. Neither lower consumer inflation nor slowing producer price inflation—which could support a 0.25% Fed rate cut—are likely to offset the uncertainty surrounding trade wars, the Ukraine conflict, and the U.S. debt ceiling issue. Investors are expected to remain highly cautious.

In this environment, gold prices will likely continue to rise, along with the U.S. dollar, while demand for cryptocurrencies will remain under pressure, along with crude oil prices.

Daily Forecast:

This image is no longer relevant

This image is no longer relevant

#SPX

The S&P 500 CFD contract may receive temporary support, rising toward 5,645.00 as traders lock in previous gains. However, a potential reversal to the downside could follow, leading to a drop toward 5,500.00.

#NDX

The NASDAQ 100 CFD contract could also receive temporary support, climbing to 19,740.00, driven by expectations surrounding U.S.-Russia talks on Ukraine. However, the index may then reverse downward, with a potential decline toward 18,945.00.

Pati Gani,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
All Analytics
Wave analysis
EUR/USD Analysis on May 9, 2025 The wave structure on the 4-hour EUR/USD chart has transformed into a bullish pattern. I believe there's little doubt that this shift was driven solely by the new U.S. trade
Chin Zhao
19:19 2025-05-09 +02:00
1360
Wave analysis
GBP/USD Analysis on May 9, 2025 The wave pattern for the GBP/USD instrument has also shifted into a bullish, impulsive structure—"thanks" to Donald Trump. The wave picture is almost identical to that of EUR/USD. Until February
Chin Zhao
19:16 2025-05-09 +02:00
1240
Breaking Forecast Trading Plan Cryptocurrencies USD/RUB Russian Economy Video Analysis
Trading Instruments
EURUSD GBPUSD USDCHF USDCAD USDJPY AUDUSD EURGBP EURJPY NZDUSD EURNZD Silver Gold #CL #USDX COVID-19 Bitcoin
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

Gold prices are showing a positive trajectory after an intraday decline to the $3275–3274 level. The renewed demand for safe-haven assets is driven by geopolitical risks, including the prolonged conflict
Irina Yanina 18:52 2025-05-09 UTC+2

DXY. The Dollar Holds Out Hope for a Recovery

Today, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the greenback's performance against a basket of major currencies, is in a phase of bullish consolidation after reaching an almost one-month high
Irina Yanina 11:31 2025-05-09 UTC+2

Markets Will Open Their Eyes and Close Their Ears

"Better go and buy stocks right now! Thanks to the White House's trade policy, the U.S. will attract $10 trillion in investment. This country will be like a rocket going
Marek Petkovich 11:10 2025-05-09 UTC+2

The U.S. and U.K. Sign a Trade Agreement

The British pound fell in response to the news that the U.S. and the U.K. had signed a trade agreement. However, there are many nuances that need to be clarified
Jakub Novak 09:31 2025-05-09 UTC+2

Has Everyone Started Believing Trump Again?

The U.S. dollar resumed its upward trajectory, while several risk assets dropped sharply after U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he expects the upcoming trade talks with China, scheduled
Jakub Novak 09:28 2025-05-09 UTC+2

The European Union Prepares New Tariffs Against the United States

It has come to light that the European Union is planning to impose additional tariffs on U.S. exports worth €95 billion if current trade negotiations with President Donald Trump's administration
Jakub Novak 09:25 2025-05-09 UTC+2

GBP/USD Overview – May 9: The Bank of England Confuses Traders Even More

The GBP/USD currency pair moved downwards first and then upwards on Thursday, indicating that the market has not yet decided how to interpret the Bank of England's meeting results
Paolo Greco 04:05 2025-05-09 UTC+2

EUR/USD Overview – May 9: Powell and the Fed Changed Nothing

On Thursday, the EUR/USD currency pair continued to trade within the same sideways channel, clearly visible on the hourly chart, almost until the evening. As we warned, the outcome
Paolo Greco 04:05 2025-05-09 UTC+2

BoE Is Concerned About the Economy

I regularly monitor three central banks, each representing an almost entirely different approach to monetary policy. On Thursday, the Bank of England cut interest rates, citing concerns over slowing economic
Chin Zhao 01:35 2025-05-09 UTC+2

The Fed Chair Is Steadfast as Steel

Everyone has already had time to review the results of the recent Federal Reserve meeting. In this article, I want to highlight a few positive points for the U.S. dollar
Chin Zhao 01:16 2025-05-09 UTC+2

Top analytics

Relevance up to 09:00 UTC--4
GBP/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on May 9th (U.S. Session)
19:10 2025-05-09
Forecast
Relevance up to 12:00 UTC--4
EUR/USD Analysis on May 9, 2025
19:19 2025-05-09
Wave analysis
Relevance up to 09:00 UTC--4
USD/JPY: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on May 9th (U.S. Session)
19:13 2025-05-09
Forecast
Relevance up to 09:00 UTC--4
EUR/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on May 9th (U.S. Session)
19:08 2025-05-09
Forecast
Relevance up to 09:00 UTC--4
GBP/USD Analysis on May 9, 2025
19:16 2025-05-09
Wave analysis
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
Callback widget
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.