empty
InstaForex Loprais Team - Official participant of the Dakar rally
InstaForex Loprais Team - Official participant of the Dakar rally
This section is designed for those who are just starting their trading journey. InstaForex educational and analytical materials will meet your training needs. Our experts' recommendations will make your first steps to trading success simple and clear.
Start as Beginner
How to start trading
Useful information
Training and recordings
InstaForex innovative services are an essential element of productive investment. We strive to provide our clients with advanced technical capabilities and make their trading routine comfortable as we are recognized as the best broker in this regard.
Become Investor
PAMM System
ForexCopy System
Passive investments
Partnership with InstaForex is beneficial and top-tier. Join our affiliate programs and enjoy bonuses, partner rewards, and the possibility to travel with the team of the world-renowned brand.
Become Partner
Main Page
Partner Area
Advantages for Affiliates
Registration
This section contains the most lucrative offers from InstaForex. Receive bonuses when topping up an account, compete with other traders, and get real prizes even when trading in a demo account.
All Promo Campaigns
Bonuses
Contests
Events
Holidays with InstaForex are not only pleasant but also useful. We offer a one-stop portal, numerous forums, and corporate blogs, where traders can exchange experiences and become successfully integrated into the Forex community.
Full details
Forums
We are in social networks
Forex humour
Forex Portal
InstaForex is an international brand created in 2007. The company provides services for online FX trading and is recognized as one of the world's leading brokers. We have won the trust of more than 7,000,000 retail traders, who have already appreciated our reliability and focus on innovations.
Learn More
History
Why Choose Us
InstaSport
Regulation
Company News
Awards
InstaForex Stars
InstaForex Offline
Headquarters
Key documents
Social Responsibility
30.04.2025 09:48 AM
U.S. GDP and PCE Data Unlikely to Drastically Shift Market Conditions (Possible Resumption of #NDX and #SPX Growth)
Open trading account Open demo account

Markets are already fatigued by the chaos unfolding in Donald Trump's mind and among his followers. Everything remains extremely unclear, so market participants are now fully focused on today's important economic data releases, especially from the United States.

The primary focus will be on U.S. Q1 GDP figures and inflation indicators. According to the consensus forecast, the American economy is expected to experience a significant slowdown in the first quarter compared to last year. GDP growth is projected to slow from 2.4% to just 0.2% — a figure so low it falls within the margin of statistical error, hinting at the real risk of the U.S. economy sliding into full-scale recession with all the associated consequences.

Today, markets will shift attention away from the now tiresome tariff narrative and focus instead on the release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for March. The indicator is expected to show a noticeable year-over-year decline from 2.5% to 2.2% and a 0.0% monthly change versus a 0.3% increase in February. The core PCE index is also expected to fall year-over-year from 2.8% to 2.6%, with monthly growth dropping from 0.4% to 0.1%. In addition, income and spending figures will also be of interest. Personal income is forecast to fall from 0.8% to 0.4%, while spending is expected to rise from 0.4% to 0.6%.

How will the markets and the dollar react to this important data?

A GDP decline could increase demand for Treasuries as investors seek safe-haven assets. At the same time, the U.S. dollar may come under localized pressure if the inflation data confirm a drop in the PCE index. The main reason, as previously noted, would be rising expectations of a possible 0.25% Federal Reserve rate cut in either May or June. In such a scenario, the U.S. stock market could gain support, as anticipation of renewed Fed rate cuts would fuel demand for equities.

Any dollar weakening is likely to be limited. The Dollar Index might fall below 99.00 but will likely remain above 98.00. This is due to expected eurozone disinflation, which could force the European Central Bank and the Bank of England to lower rates again, thereby balancing out the narrowing interest rate differentials with the Fed.

Despite the importance of today's data, it may have limited influence on asset prices, drowned out by the ongoing chaos surrounding Trump. Uncertainty remains the dominant market force.

This image is no longer relevant

This image is no longer relevant

Daily Forecast:

#SPX

The CFD on the S&P 500 futures is trading slightly above 5525.80. A decline in the PCE index would increase the likelihood of Fed rate cuts, which supports U.S. equities. On this momentum, the contract may resume its rise toward 5637.32 and eventually 5783.00. A potential buy level is 5557.04.

#NDX

The CFD on the NASDAQ 100 futures is trading slightly below 19455.00. A drop in the PCE index could serve as a basis for renewed Fed rate cuts, supporting U.S. equities. Against this backdrop, the contract could resume growth toward 20000.00 and 20330.00. A potential buy level is 19537.20.

Pati Gani,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
All Analytics
Wave analysis
EUR/USD Analysis on May 28, 2025 The wave structure on the 4-hour EUR/USD chart has transformed into a bullish configuration and continues to follow that trajectory. There is little doubt that this transformation was driven solely
Chin Zhao
19:08 2025-05-28 +02:00
2020
Fundamental analysis
The Euro Is Rushing Things After a rapid rally from February through April, EUR/USD entered a prolonged consolidation phase. For several weeks now, the major currency pair has remained locked within the 1.1100–1.1400 trading range
Marek Petkovich
18:43 2025-05-28 +02:00
1765
Breaking Forecast Trading Plan Cryptocurrencies USD/RUB Russian Economy Video Analysis
Trading Instruments
EURUSD GBPUSD USDCHF USDCAD USDJPY AUDUSD EURGBP EURJPY NZDUSD EURNZD Silver Gold #CL #USDX COVID-19 Bitcoin
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

The Euro Is Rushing Things

After a rapid rally from February through April, EUR/USD entered a prolonged consolidation phase. For several weeks now, the major currency pair has remained locked within the 1.1100–1.1400 trading range
Marek Petkovich 18:43 2025-05-28 UTC+2

USD/CAD. Analysis and Forecast

The USD/CAD pair has been recovering for the third consecutive day from this year's lowest level, supported by renewed buying interest in the U.S. dollar. Yesterday's optimistic U.S. economic data
Irina Yanina 11:44 2025-05-28 UTC+2

DXY: U.S. Dollar Index Continues to Show Positive Momentum for the Second Day in a Row

On Wednesday, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) continued its upward momentum for the second consecutive day, rebounding from the monthly low reached earlier this week. The index rose
Irina Yanina 11:36 2025-05-28 UTC+2

Why Are Currencies Traded Against the Dollar Not Declining? (There Is a Chance EUR/USD May Resume Growth and USD/JPY May Fall)

We are truly living in an unusual time, where the classic principles of assessing market situations are being cast aside in favor of more pressing and, more importantly, unclear
Pati Gani 10:05 2025-05-28 UTC+2

Market Conditions Favor the Dollar

Yesterday, the U.S. dollar continued to strengthen against a number of risk assets—particularly gaining ground against the euro and the British pound. Strong U.S. economic data triggered significant movements
Jakub Novak 09:53 2025-05-28 UTC+2

The Market Has Left the Bad Behind

History repeats itself. Markets breathed a sigh of relief and bought the decline in the S&P 500 after Donald Trump's threats of 50% tariffs on the European Union were replaced
Marek Petkovich 09:47 2025-05-28 UTC+2

AUD/NZD. Analysis and Forecast

The AUD/NZD pair attempted to attract buyers on the decline, but so far, there hasn't been enough conviction to support a sustained move. Intraday upward momentum slowed following the Reserve
Irina Yanina 09:33 2025-05-28 UTC+2

GBP/USD Overview – May 28: What Is Trump's Plan This Time? Part 2

The GBP/USD currency pair also traded with a minimal decline. There was little news on the day, so the market decided to take a breather before the next upward move
Paolo Greco 08:00 2025-05-28 UTC+2

EUR/USD Overview – May 28: What Is Trump's Plan This Time?

On Tuesday, the EUR/USD currency pair showed a slight decline. The U.S. dollar continues to struggle to gain strength as market participants lack confidence in it. While it was previously
Paolo Greco 08:00 2025-05-28 UTC+2

What to Pay Attention to on May 28? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

Very few macroeconomic reports are scheduled for Wednesday. Among the more or less noteworthy reports, only Germany's unemployment rate and the change in the number of unemployed can be highlighted
Paolo Greco 06:53 2025-05-28 UTC+2

Top analytics

Relevance up to 08:00 UTC--4
USD/JPY: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders – May 28th (U.S. Session)
18:39 2025-05-28
Forecast
Relevance up to 09:00 UTC--4
The Euro Is Rushing Things
18:43 2025-05-28
Fundamental analysis
Relevance up to 12:00 UTC--4
EUR/USD Analysis on May 28, 2025
19:08 2025-05-28
Wave analysis
Relevance up to 08:00 2025-05-30 UTC--4
The Yen Saws Off the Branch Under the Dollar
00:30 2025-05-29
Fundamental analysis
Relevance up to 11:00 UTC--4
NZD/USD. Hawkish Rate Cut: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand Concludes Its May Meeting
00:31 2025-05-29
Fundamental analysis
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
Callback widget
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.