empty
18.03.2025 10:47 AM
BTC/USD Analysis – March 18th: Bitcoin Prepares for Growth, but the Risk of Collapse Remains

This image is no longer relevant

The 4-hour wave structure for BTC/USD appears clear and well-defined. After completing a five-wave bullish trend, a bearish phase began, which currently resembles a corrective pattern. Based on this, I do not expect Bitcoin to surpass $110,000 - $115,000 in the coming months.

Bitcoin's uptrend was supported by a steady flow of positive news regarding institutional investments, government purchases, and pension fund allocations. However, Trump's policies have driven investors out of the market, and no trend can remain bullish indefinitely.

The wave that started on January 20 does not resemble an impulse wave, suggesting we are dealing with a complex corrective structure that could last for months. The internal structure of this first wave is intricate, but I can identify a five-wave a-b-c-d-e pattern within it.

If the current wave analysis is correct, Bitcoin is now forming a corrective bullish wave, which, based on classical Elliott Wave theory, should consist of three waves.

BTC/USD has managed to halt its decline, and the current wave structure suggests a potential rise. However, this conclusion is based purely on technical wave analysis, as the fundamental backdrop remains bearish for Bitcoin, stocks, and other risk assets.

That said, it's crucial to remember that wave analysis does not control markets—it only highlights the most probable scenarios.

The price action over the past few days indicates a lack of buyers, which is another bearish signal. Additionally, the downward wave structure could evolve into an even more complex, extended pattern, surpassing the initial a-b-c-d-e formation.

Currently, Bitcoin appears to be slipping back toward the low of wave e, which leads me to believe that a three-wave correction may not materialize, and the downtrend could resume sooner than expected.

Analyzing the fundamental backdrop won't take much time—there are no major bullish developments that could justify a strong price surge.

Instead, we see a clear pattern. Since Donald Trump became U.S. president, Bitcoin has consistently lost value. This remains the primary bearish factor, and I expect it to continue pushing market participants toward selling Bitcoin.

This image is no longer relevant

General Conclusions

Based on my BTC/USD analysis, I conclude that Bitcoin's current growth phase is over. Everything suggests that we are in the early stages of a complex, multi-month correction.

I have not recommended buying Bitcoin before, and I certainly do not recommend it now.

A drop below the low of wave 4 would confirm that Bitcoin is entering a full-fledged bearish trend, likely of a corrective nature.

Therefore, I consider the best approach to be searching for short-selling opportunities. If a bullish correction occurs, I will look for selling opportunities with targets around $68,000 and lower.

On higher timeframes, Bitcoin has completed a five-wave bullish cycle and is now in the early stages of a corrective or full-scale bearish trend.

Key Principles of My Analysis:

  1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex patterns are difficult to trade and often change unexpectedly.
  2. If there is uncertainty in the market, it is better to stay out.
  3. There is never 100% certainty in market direction. Always use Stop Loss orders.
  4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.
Pilih carta masa
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
jam
4
jam
1
hari
1
minggu
Jana pendapatan melalui perubahan kadar mata wang kripto dengan InstaForex.
Muat turun MetaTrader 4 dan buka dagangan pertama anda.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    SERTAI PERADUAN

Artikel yang dicadangkan

Cadangan Dagangan untuk Pasaran Matawang Kripto pada 20 Jun

Bitcoin meneruskan dagangan dalam saluran mendatar, jatuh ke kawasan $104,000 semalam sebelum pulih ke tahap yang lebih boleh diterima iaitu $104,500. Ethereum juga tidak menunjukkan pergerakan arah yang jelas. Walaupun

Miroslaw Bawulski 11:06 2025-06-20 UTC+2

Cadangan Dagangan untuk Pasaran Matawang Kripto pada 19 Jun

Semalam, Bitcoin dan Ethereum terus berada di bawah tekanan, gagal meraih sokongan daripada pemain utama walaupun terdapat percubaan untuk menembusi paras rintangan utama. Selepas menyusut ke sekitar $130,400, Bitcoin kini

Miroslaw Bawulski 10:55 2025-06-20 UTC+2

Technical Analysis of Intraday Price Movement of Doge Cryptocurrency, Friday June 20, 2025.

Daripada apa yang dilihat pada carta 4 jam, mata wang kripto Doge nampaknya bergerak di bawah kecenderungan menurun, di mana ini boleh dilihat daripada pergerakan harganya yang bergerak dalam saluran

Arief Makmur 10:28 2025-06-20 UTC+2

Analisis Teknikal Pergerakan Harga Intraday Matawang Kripto Ripple, Jumaat 20 Jun 2025.

Mata wang kripto Ripple pada carta 4 jam kini kelihatan bergerak dalam keadaan mendatar atau dalam julat, di mana harganya sedang tersekat pada kawasan Support Bullish Rejection Block (kotak biru

Arief Makmur 09:06 2025-06-20 UTC+2

Analisis BTC/USD pada 19 Jun 2025

Corak gelombang pada carta BTC/USD 4 jam telah menjadi lebih kompleks dalam beberapa bulan kebelakangan ini. Struktur ke bawah pembetulan terbentuk dan disiapkan berhampiran tahap $75,000. Selepas itu, pergerakan menaik

Chin Zhao 07:54 2025-06-20 UTC+2

JPMorgan Chase & Co. merancang untuk melancarkan stablecoin mereka sendiri

JPMorgan Chase & Co., bank terbesar di AS berdasarkan aset dan permodalan pasaran, telah memfailkan permohonan tanda dagang untuk sesuatu yang kelihatan seperti aset berasaskan blockchain baru yang dipanggil JPMD

Jakub Novak 11:25 2025-06-17 UTC+2

Cadangan Dagangan untuk Pasaran Mata Wang Kripto pada 17 Jun

Bitcoin jatuh dari $108,700 ke $106,000, manakala Ethereum menurun dari paras tinggi $2,676 ke $2,525 sebelum sedikit pulih. Walaupun pedagang kripto menjangkakan aliran menaik yang berterusan dan potensi ujian semula

Miroslaw Bawulski 09:04 2025-06-17 UTC+2

Apakah kemungkinan BTC didagangkan pada harga $150K menjelang Ogos?

Selama beberapa hari, Bitcoin bertahan di atas paras $105,000, seolah-olah sedang menunggu. Tetapi hari ini, ia telah melonjak. Kita telah menyaksikan satu fasa pengukuhan klasik sebelum lonjakan harga yang mungkin

Ekaterina Kiseleva 17:22 2025-06-16 UTC+2

Cadangan Dagangan untuk Pasaran Mata Wang Kripto pada 16 Jun

Bitcoin dan Ethereum telah mendapatkan semula kedudukan mereka selepas penjualan besar pada hujung minggu lalu, yang berlaku selepas tercetusnya konflik ketenteraan antara Iran dan Israel. Pagi ini, harga melonjak melebihi

Miroslaw Bawulski 08:55 2025-06-16 UTC+2

Pasaran Mata Wang Kripto Menjunam — Ini Sebabnya

Bitcoin dan Ethereum telah mengalami kejatuhan. Bitcoin kehilangan sekitar 3.5% hanya dalam dagangan pagi sahaja, manakala Ethereum jatuh lebih daripada 10%, kemudian sedikit pulih semula. Panik melanda pasaran mata wang

Jakub Novak 11:12 2025-06-13 UTC+2
Tidak boleh bertanya sekarang?
Tanya soalan anda di Ruangan bersembang.
Panggilan semula Widget
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.