Analisis Forex & Kajian: 28.03.2025 - Markets Have Found the...

28.03.2025 09:19 AM

Markets Have Found the Culprits

If you don't get it the first time, you will the second. The S&P 500 sell-off, led by U.S. and foreign automaker shares, continued a second day after the imposition of 25% tariffs. Donald Trump threatened the European Union and Canada with retaliation should they respond jointly to the import duties, and companies have begun tallying up losses. The broad stock index is confidently moving toward the lower boundary of its medium-term trading range of 5500–5790, but blaming only the White House occupant for all its troubles would be misguided.

The sell-off of overvalued "Magnificent Seven" companies, slowing corporate profit growth, and a weakening U.S. economy contribute to a capital shift from North America to Europe. European indices are currently outperforming the S&P 500 by a wide margin. However, according to the world's largest asset manager, this advantage may not last long. BlackRock believes that Germany's fiscal stimulus will primarily benefit banks and defense companies — a very narrow group. Therefore, one shouldn't count on the EuroStoxx 50 and DAX 40 rally to continue at the same pace.

Performance of European vs. U.S. Stock Indices

By contrast, the U.S. stock market will likely receive a fresh boost once the situation surrounding Donald Trump's protectionist policies becomes clearer. Many companies will adapt to the tariffs, enabling the S&P 500 to grow again.

But first, the broad stock index would do well to shed some dead weight. In 2025, that weight comes from the "Magnificent Seven" stocks. Back in February, they were trading at 45 times forward earnings. Only the sell-off has brought the P/E ratio down to 35 — still high, though the 11% drop in that figure is striking.

Q1 earnings season kicks off in a few weeks, and Wall Street's 7.1% earnings forecast is impressive. But that's four percentage points lower than what experts were projecting at the end of 2024. The discrepancy in estimates is above the historical average. Forecasts have been cut across all 11 S&P 500 sectors, and earnings growth is expected to slow in nine.

Earnings Forecast Trends by S&P 500 Sectors

The stronger-than-expected Q4 GDP reading of 2.4% shouldn't be misleading. For January–March, Bloomberg analysts expect GDP growth to slow to 1–1.5%, and the Atlanta Fed's leading indicator signals an even weaker pace — just 0.2%. Inflation remains elevated, tying the Fed's hands and preventing the central bank from throwing markets a lifeline.

Technically, on the daily chart, the S&P 500 continues its previously forecasted move from the upper boundary of its consolidation range (5500–5790) toward the lower bound. It makes sense to hold and even build on short positions once support at 5670 is broken — especially since the Broadening Wedge pattern is playing out clearly.

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