empty
InstaForex Loprais Team - Official participant of the Dakar rally
InstaForex Loprais Team - Official participant of the Dakar rally
This section is designed for those who are just starting their trading journey. InstaForex educational and analytical materials will meet your training needs. Our experts' recommendations will make your first steps to trading success simple and clear.
Start as Beginner
How to start trading
Useful information
Training and recordings
InstaForex innovative services are an essential element of productive investment. We strive to provide our clients with advanced technical capabilities and make their trading routine comfortable as we are recognized as the best broker in this regard.
Become Investor
PAMM System
ForexCopy System
Passive investments
Partnership with InstaForex is beneficial and top-tier. Join our affiliate programs and enjoy bonuses, partner rewards, and the possibility to travel with the team of the world-renowned brand.
Become Partner
Main Page
Partner Area
Advantages for Affiliates
Registration
This section contains the most lucrative offers from InstaForex. Receive bonuses when topping up an account, compete with other traders, and get real prizes even when trading in a demo account.
All Promo Campaigns
Bonuses
Contests
Events
Holidays with InstaForex are not only pleasant but also useful. We offer a one-stop portal, numerous forums, and corporate blogs, where traders can exchange experiences and become successfully integrated into the Forex community.
Full details
Forums
We are in social networks
Forex humour
Forex Portal
InstaForex is an international brand created in 2007. The company provides services for online FX trading and is recognized as one of the world's leading brokers. We have won the trust of more than 7,000,000 retail traders, who have already appreciated our reliability and focus on innovations.
Learn More
History
Why Choose Us
InstaSport
Regulation
Company News
Awards
InstaForex Stars
InstaForex Offline
Headquarters
Key documents
Social Responsibility
11.04.2025 08:42 AM
The Market Has Grown Used to Chaos
Open trading account Open demo account

What is life if not a game? In past years, investors focused on the standoff between the Federal Reserve and financial markets. But in 2025, the rules of the game have changed. Now, it's the White House—not the central bank—that markets are testing for resilience. Donald Trump claimed winning a trade war would be easy, but the drop in the S&P 500 prior to the tariff delay announcement suggests that traders think otherwise. The Republican's step back on tariffs triggered a record surge in market capitalization. But the chaos is far from over.

The S&P 500's 9.5% rally in response to the U.S. freezing tariffs for 90 days clearly showed what markets consider the main threat to the global economy: the trade war. The next day, the White House clarified that tariffs on Chinese imports would stand at 145%—not the previously announced 125% by Trump on social media—the broad stock index fell by 3.5%.

S&P 500 Daily Performance

This image is no longer relevant

The sell-off that followed the historic rebound in the S&P 500 was the price investors had to pay for such extreme volatility.

The White House boasts that around 70 countries are willing to negotiate, and about 15 have already submitted proposals. However, a Wall Street Journal insider claims that most proposals are simply calls to lift tariffs. The U.S. administration is expected to demand increased purchases of American goods and reductions in foreign tariffs. But this is a lengthy process, historically taking years. The first trade war with China took months to begin negotiations. Now, Donald Trump aims to revise trade agreements even faster—potentially with nearly 100 countries.

As a result, skepticism is growing over the feasibility of Washington's plans. Combined with the unpredictability of its protectionist stance and the chaotic implementation of tariffs, this erodes trust in the U.S. economy and its financial assets. Rumors have begun circulating in the market that the U.S. may need a recession to reset its fundamentals.

U.S. Treasury Yield Dynamics

This image is no longer relevant

The trade war between the world's two largest economies will not end well for anyone. A 145% tariff is enormous, indicating that some portion of the $582 billion in Chinese imports into the U.S. will be redirected to other countries—if possible. Beijing has limited options to respond. One of them could be selling off U.S. Treasuries. Rising yields suggest that this process may already be underway.

This image is no longer relevant

Thus, the White House's tariff delay has not ended the market chaos. U.S. equity market volatility remains elevated.

From a technical standpoint, the S&P 500 daily chart forms an inside bar with a long lower shadow. A breakout above the 5355 high could signal short-term buying. However, opening short positions on a rebound from resistance levels at 5500 and 5600 remains valid.

Marek Petkovich,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
All Analytics
Fundamental analysis
USD/JPY. Analysis and Forecast The USD/JPY pair is holding above the key 144.00 level amid continued weakness in the U.S. dollar. Strong household spending data released today in Japan has strengthened expectations
Irina Yanina
18:12 2025-07-04 +02:00
1255
Fundamental analysis
NZD/USD. Analysis and Forecast The NZD/USD currency pair is recovering after bouncing from the 0.6030 level, which marks a weekly low, and is attempting to gain further positive momentum. This suggests a break
Irina Yanina
18:08 2025-07-04 +02:00
1525
Breaking Forecast Trading Plan Cryptocurrencies USD/RUB Russian Economy Video Analysis
Trading Instruments
EURUSD GBPUSD USDCHF USDCAD USDJPY AUDUSD EURGBP EURJPY NZDUSD EURNZD Silver Gold #CL #USDX COVID-19 Bitcoin
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

USD/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

The USD/JPY pair is holding above the key 144.00 level amid continued weakness in the U.S. dollar. Strong household spending data released today in Japan has strengthened expectations
Irina Yanina 18:12 2025-07-04 UTC+2

NZD/USD. Analysis and Forecast

The NZD/USD currency pair is recovering after bouncing from the 0.6030 level, which marks a weekly low, and is attempting to gain further positive momentum. This suggests a break
Irina Yanina 18:08 2025-07-04 UTC+2

USD/CAD. Analysis and Forecast

On Friday, the USD/CAD pair remains near a three-week low, trading below the key 1.3600 level. The U.S. dollar is struggling to extend its gains following yesterday's stronger-than-expected Nonfarm Payrolls
Irina Yanina 17:59 2025-07-04 UTC+2

The Market Celebrates a Victory

Financial markets responded positively to the release of U.S. employment statistics for June. Payrolls rose by 143,000, exceeding Bloomberg analysts' forecasts. April and May figures were revised upward
Marek Petkovich 10:15 2025-07-04 UTC+2

Next Week May Begin on a Positive Note for the Markets (Possible Resumption of Growth in #SPX and #NDX)

The U.S. labor market data, published by the Department of Labor, instilled cautious optimism among investors, extending the rally in U.S. equity markets, supporting the dollar, and weakening gold prices
Pati Gani 10:09 2025-07-04 UTC+2

The Market is Preparing for Another Shock

Just yesterday, U.S. President Donald Trump announced that his administration would begin sending letters to trade partners on Friday, outlining unilateral tariff rates that, according to him, countries will
Jakub Novak 09:55 2025-07-04 UTC+2

Strong U.S. Employment Report Exceeds All Expectations

The U.S. dollar surged against a range of risk assets as the key figures in June's employment report convinced the Federal Reserve that there is no need to lower interest
Jakub Novak 09:49 2025-07-04 UTC+2

What to Pay Attention to on July 4? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

No macroeconomic reports are scheduled for Friday. As previously mentioned, today is a public holiday in the United States, known as Independence Day. All banks and stock exchanges will
Paolo Greco 07:59 2025-07-04 UTC+2

GBP/USD Overview – July 4: Reeves Cried — Did the Pound Collapse?

The GBP/USD currency pair also traded fairly calmly throughout Thursday until the start of the U.S. trading session. Recall that a day earlier, the British currency had plummeted by nearly
Paolo Greco 03:56 2025-07-04 UTC+2

EUR/USD Overview – July 4: Trump's Third Trade Deal Didn't Help the Dollar Either

The EUR/USD currency pair traded very calmly throughout Thursday, until unemployment and labor market reports were released in the United States. However, we will discuss those reports in other articles
Paolo Greco 03:56 2025-07-04 UTC+2

Top analytics

Relevance up to 07:00 UTC--5
USD/JPY: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders – July 4th (U.S. Session)
18:58 2025-07-04
Forecast
Relevance up to 06:00 UTC--5
GBP/USD: Trading Plan for the U.S. Session on July 4th (Review of Morning Trades)
18:20 2025-07-04
Trading plan
Relevance up to 06:00 UTC--5
EUR/USD: Trading Plan for the U.S. Session on July 4th (Review of Morning Trades)
18:16 2025-07-04
Trading plan
Relevance up to 07:00 UTC--5
EUR/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders – July 4th (U.S. Session)
18:52 2025-07-04
Forecast
Relevance up to 07:00 UTC--5
GBP/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders – July 4th (U.S. Session)
18:53 2025-07-04
Forecast
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
Callback widget
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.