empty
27.03.2025 12:41 AM
GBP/USD. A Rough Patch for the Pound

The UK inflation report failed to support the pound—all components of the release came in below expectations. On the one hand, this report is unlikely to influence the outcome of the Bank of England's May meeting; with a high degree of probability, the central bank will leave all monetary policy parameters unchanged. On the other hand, the figures may signal early signs of CPI slowing. If this trend continues, a rate cut could return to the agenda for the June meeting.

This image is no longer relevant

According to the published data, the overall Consumer Price Index (CPI) in monthly terms rose to 0.4% in February (forecast: 0.5%). Year-over-year, headline CPI slowed to 2.8% (forecast: 2.9%). Core CPI, which excludes energy and food prices, also underperformed, falling to 3.5% y/y (forecast: 3.6%) after a sharp spike to 3.7%.

The Retail Price Index (RPI), which employers use in wage negotiations, was also disappointing. Month-over-month, it rose to 0.6% (forecast: 0.8%), and year-over-year, it fell to 3.4%. Most analysts expected it to remain at January's level of 3.5%.

What do the figures tell us? On one hand, inflation has stopped accelerating—that's a fact. Yearly inflation indicators pulled back. On the other hand, inflation is still worryingly high. For instance, headline CPI may have retreated from its near-yearly high (3.0%), but it still sits well above the local low recorded in September (1.7%). February's 2.8% reading is above the BoE's 2% target.

Therefore, we can be fairly certain the BoE won't ease monetary policy at its May meeting. Policymakers may acknowledge some progress in fighting inflation, but not enough to shift their tone significantly. One report isn't enough; a longer-term trend is needed.

This ambiguity suggests that short positions on GBP/USD are not entirely reliable. It's also worth noting that sellers could not break through the interim support level at 1.2880, corresponding to the middle line of the Bollinger Bands on the daily chart.

Despite additional pressure from UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves, who announced that the country's 2025 GDP growth forecast was cut in half—from 2% to 1%—she cited "global uncertainty," which has "increased significantly" in recent months.

Reeves also stated that the government would reduce welfare benefits and tighten eligibility rules to cut budget spending. Notably, many people under 22 will no longer qualify for disability payments, and access to universal credit and disability benefits will also become more restricted.

According to some analysts, these measures will save only £3.5 billion instead of the £5 billion previously stated—meaning the UK government will need to identify further areas to tighten fiscal policy.

These austerity measures are bearish for the pound, but such fundamental factors typically have only short-term impact (since the effects of fiscal tightening will take time to show). Likely, market participants will quickly digest Reeves's "spring statement" and shift their focus to other fundamentals.

Thus, GBP/USD is in a mixed state. On the one hand, the pair fell on Wednesday for valid reasons—the current fundamental backdrop supports a bearish move. On the other hand, Wednesday's events are unlikely to trigger a prolonged decline. For example, if Thursday's final U.S. Q4 GDP report comes below expectations (i.e., revised downward), GBP/USD bulls will likely regain control and push the pair back toward the 1.29 area.

It's also worth reiterating that bears failed to break below the 1.2880 support level (middle Bollinger Band on D1)—a clear sign of stalling momentum. This casts doubt on the sustainability of short positions. If sellers can't push through this barrier in the short term, long positions will take priority again—especially if the U.S. GDP report disappoints or merely meets expectations. The targets for the upward movement remain the same: 1.2950 (the Tenkan-sen line on D1) and 1.3000.

Irina Manzenko,
Especialista em análise na InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Selecionar intervalo de tempo
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hora
4
horas
1
dia
1
s.
Ganhe com as variações das taxas das criptomoedas com a InstaForex.
Baixe o MetaTrader 4 e abra a sua primeira operação.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    PARTICIPE DO CONCURSO

Recommended Stories

GBP/JPY. Análise e previsão

Durante a sessão europeia desta segunda-feira, o par GBP/JPY se aproxima do nível de 198,30. A libra encontra algum suporte nos dados do setor imobiliário do Reino Unido: em junho

Irina Yanina 20:32 2025-07-07 UTC+2

XAU/USD: Riscos geopolíticos podem dar mais suporte ao metal precioso porto-seguro

Hoje, o ouro mostra um sinal intradiário de baixa, apesar de de sua recuperção do nível de US$ 3.300. O fortalecimento da demanda pelo dólar norte-americano continua

Irina Yanina 19:57 2025-07-07 UTC+2

O que observar no dia 7 de julho? Uma análise dos eventos fundamentais para iniciantes

Pouquíssimas publicações macroeconômicas estão programadas para esta segunda-feira, e nenhuma delas é importante. Lembremos que sexta-feira foi praticamente um semi-feriado, pois os Estados Unidos comemoraram o Dia da Independência

Paolo Greco 17:36 2025-07-07 UTC+2

Os investidores não veem alternativas

A incerteza costuma ser inimiga dos investimentos — mas não em 2025. Uma combinação dupla de imprevisibilidade, vinda tanto da geopolítica quanto das tarifas impostas pela Casa Branca, não impediu

Marek Petkovich 16:50 2025-07-07 UTC+2

Bitcoin vive dias turbulentos

Sob a aparente calmaria do par BTC/USD, correntes profundas estão redesenhando silenciosamente o mercado de criptomoedas. Águas paradas são, de fato, profundas. À primeira vista, pode parecer que o mercado

Marek Petkovich 16:40 2025-07-07 UTC+2

USD/JPY. Análise e previsão.

O par USD/JPY mantém um viés de alta, sendo negociado acima do nível psicológico de 145,00. Esse movimento reflete a pressão de venda intradiária sobre o iene japonês, enquanto

Irina Yanina 16:01 2025-07-07 UTC+2

Contagem Regressiva: Três dias para evitar tarifas

Com a aproximação do dia 9 de julho — prazo fixado pelo presidente Trump —, os principais parceiros comerciais dos Estados Unidos passaram o fim de semana numa corrida contra

Jakub Novak 15:23 2025-07-07 UTC+2

USD/CAD. Análise e previsão

Na segunda-feira, o par USD/CAD avançou pelo segundo dia consecutivo, impulsionado por vários fatores. Os preços do petróleo bruto recuaram inicialmente após a decisão inesperada da OPEP+ de aumentar

Irina Yanina 15:16 2025-07-07 UTC+2

GBP/USD. Análise e previsão

O par GBP/USD começou a nova semana tentando manter o nível psicológico chave de 1,3600. No entanto, em meio a fatores fundamentais mistos, até agora não teve sucesso. A libra

Irina Yanina 14:57 2025-07-07 UTC+2

Visão geral do GBP/USD em 7 de julho de 2025

O par GBP/USD ficou praticamente estável durante toda a sexta-feira, já que a sessão nos EUA esteve praticamente parada por conta do feriado. Sem indicadores macroeconômicos relevantes, o mercado preferiu

Paolo Greco 14:41 2025-07-07 UTC+2
Não pode falar agora?
Faça sua pergunta no chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.