empty
31.01.2023 09:07 AM
USD/JPY: US dollar latches on Fed rate increase expectations

This image is no longer relevant

The US dollar tries to take advantage of the upcoming interest rate hike in the US. On Monday, USD/JPY rose by 0.7% and hit the high of 130.5.

The current week will be a very busy one for FX traders. Several central banks will have policy meeting in the next few days, which could dramatically alter the balance of power for major currency pairs.

Tomorrow's Fed monetary policy meeting should be a deciding factor for USD/JPY. Many experts think that dollar bulls will not miss the opportunity to take advantage of it.

Over the past several months, there has been speculation that the Fed might soon roll back or pause its hawkish monetary policy. As a result, DXY lost 1.3% in January alone.

Analysts say traders have already fully priced in the risk of a possible cut by the US central bank. Recently, the dollar has strongly declined against all major currencies and now appears to be oversold.

At its February meeting the Fed is definitely unlikely to hit the brakes and will continue to follow a hawkish course. This means that the US dollar has a real chance to increase against some currencies in the short term.

USD/JPY might actually benefit from tomorrow's rate hike in the US. Most likely, bulls will try to take maximum advantage of an increased monetary policy gap between the US and Japan once again.

This image is no longer relevant

Traders now expect the Fed to slow the pace of rate hikes again and raise the rate by only 25 bps. But even such a minimal step can undermine the position of the slightly weakened yen.

The Japanese currency has been showing signs of weakness against the dollar lately, as its upside momentum has almost run out.

The market has not stopped expecting a hawkish reversal of the Bank of Japan. Many investors have realized that BOJ will not change its policy as long as Haruhiko Kuroda is still in charge.

"Kuroda's defiance and pattern of surprising markets and going against the consensus means we may not get any policy changes at his final meeting in March, and instead leave it to his successor to tighten policy," analyst Matt Simpson noted.

Analysts still see excellent upside potential for the yen in the medium term, but believe that JPY will likely slide down in the very near future.

Bloomberg commented that the US dollar has broken out of the downtrend it has been in against the yen since October, giving USD the opportunity to advance against JPY.

At this stage, USD/JPY traders will need to figure out the Fed's next move. If the rhetoric of the US central bank tomorrow is more hawkish and rumors of a possible pause in the tightening cycle prove to be unfounded, the pair will rise.

If the opposite is the case, USD/JPY might fall sharply and test its recent lows.

Technical analysis of USD/JPY

Despite its recent rally, USD/JPY is currently trading below the 20-day EMA, which is located at 130.57. To continue the uptrend, the pair needs to surpass the EMA, which is used to gauge short-term bias.

Technical indicators such as RoC and RSI are also signaling a possible upward movement as well. The rate of change shows that bulls are gaining momentum and the Relative Strength Index is about to turn bullish.

�lena Ivannitskaya,
Experto analítico de InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Seleccione el marco de tiempo
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hora
4
horas
1
día
1
s.
Gana con los cambios en el valor de las criptomonedas con InstaForex.
Descarga MetaTrader 4 y abre tu primera operación.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    UNIRSE AL CONCURSO

Recommended Stories

¿Sobrevivirá el índice S&P 500 bajo la "cruz de la muerte"?

Al amplio índice S&P 500 (SPX) le resulta cada vez más difícil mantenerse a flote. La volatilidad del mercado, que se dispara debido a la inestable situación geopolítica

Larisa Kolesnikova 08:14 2025-04-16 UTC+2

El mercado en zona roja: Dow -0,4%, Nasdaq -0,1% — los buenos informes no salvaron a Wall Street

Bank of America sube tras una mayor ganancia en el primer trimestre La incertidumbre sobre las perspectivas arancelarias sigue siendo alta Los mercados fluctúan por disputas entre

08:14 2025-04-16 UTC+2

Superando las previsiones: se pronostica que el oro subirá hasta los $3700. El dólar en desventaja, el euro al alza

El metal amarillo ha ocupado un lugar de honor entre los activos más demandados y no piensa detenerse en lo logrado. El precio del oro sigue creciendo con seguridad, superando

Larisa Kolesnikova 11:02 2025-04-14 UTC+2

El Bitcoin en confusión: el precio del BTC cae, luego sube ligeramente – ¡no encuentra un punto de apoyo!

La primera criptomoneda se encuentra en un estado de "descomposición": no logra encontrar un punto de apoyo. El Bitcoin está experimentando una volatilidad significativa, habiendo mostrado una caída esta semana

Larisa Kolesnikova 11:16 2025-04-10 UTC+2

Trump sacude los mercados: el dólar, el euro y el yen en el epicentro de una nueva tormenta arancelaria

Ayer se supo que, a partir de la próxima semana, el presidente de Estados Unidos, Donald Trump, impondrá aranceles del 25% a la importación de automóviles. Esta noticia provocó turbulencias

Аlena Ivannitskaya 07:28 2025-03-27 UTC+2

Resumen de noticias del mercado de EE. UU. 26.03

Los principales bancos no tienen una opinión unificada sobre el S&P 500: el mercado está en zona de incertidumbre. El S&P 500 se ha consolidado por encima de un nivel

Irina Maksimova 10:32 2025-03-26 UTC+2

Cuando los mercados están agitados: el gas sube, el petróleo duda

La sesión de negociación en EE. UU. del martes trajo noticias interesantes para los participantes del mercado: los futuros de gas natural subieron repentinamente, mientras que el petróleo decidió tomarse

Natalia Andreeva 11:14 2025-03-19 UTC+2

El oro bate récords: $3.000 no es el límite

El metal amarillo comenzó la nueva semana con un tono positivo y hasta ahora mantiene ese ritmo. En este momento, el oro se cotiza ligeramente por encima del nivel redondo

Larisa Kolesnikova 07:30 2025-03-19 UTC+2

Mercados en pánico: Nasdaq se desploma un 1,71%, mientras el oro alcanza máximos históricos

Nvidia cae en medio del inicio de la conferencia anual de desarrolladores de software Tesla se desploma después de que RBC redujera su precio objetivo El oro alcanza un máximo

06:58 2025-03-19 UTC+2

¿Volverá el Bitcoin a los $90.000? Las esperanzas «alcistas» de la primera criptomoneda

El Bitcoin lucha actualmente por un lugar bajo el sol, defendiendo su estatus de primera criptomoneda. Actualmente, el activo estrella no pasa por su mejor momento, aunque muchos expertos

Larisa Kolesnikova 13:06 2025-03-10 UTC+2
¿No puede hablar ahora mismo?
Ingrese su pregunta en el chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.